Is the World Becoming More Violent?

Ten years ago, in 2014, the world seemed to be on a path toward greater peace. Long-term trends indicated a decline in violent conflict, with fewer wars and a seemingly brighter future. At that time, our analysis suggested that humanity was entering its most peaceful period. However, fast forward to 2024, and the question arises again: Is the world truly becoming more violent?

A Look Back: The 2014 Predictions

In 2014, we made seven key claims about global conflict:

1. Conflict-related deaths were at their lowest levels in history.
2. Wars between countries were nearly nonexistent.
3. Democracies didn’t engage in wars with each other.
4. Borders were largely fixed and unchallenged.
5. Most conflicts occurred in regions previously colonized or under Soviet rule.
6. Diplomatic resolutions were increasingly ending civil wars.
7. Humanity was living in its most peaceful era.

Now, a decade later, let’s revisit these claims and assess how well they’ve held up.

A Decade of Shifting Conflicts

Some of the world’s deadliest conflicts in 2014 have since ended or diminished in intensity. For instance:

• The Afghan war concluded with the Taliban’s victory.
• The ISIS protostate in Iraq and Syria was eradicated.
• The civil war in South Sudan ended with a fragile peace agreement.
• The devastating Syrian civil war saw significant shifts, with rebels gaining ground.

However, the last decade also witnessed the eruption of new conflicts and the escalation of unresolved issues. Notably:

• The Tigray War in Ethiopia, one of the deadliest civil wars in decades, ended in 2022 with over half a million estimated deaths.
• Other significant conflicts include the civil wars in Yemen, Myanmar, and Sudan, alongside insurgencies in regions like Mali, Somalia, and Mozambique.
• Smaller-scale but prolonged conflicts, such as border disputes in Africa and Asia, continue to simmer.

The Return of Interstate Wars

While most conflicts remain internal, the resurgence of wars between nations is alarming. Recent examples include:

• The 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which redrew contested borders.
• The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, marking the first large-scale interstate war in over 20 years.
• Renewed hostilities between Israel and Hamas, escalating into broader regional crises.

These developments challenge the notion that interstate wars are relics of the past.

By the Numbers: Conflict-Related Deaths

From 2014 to 2024, state-based conflicts claimed approximately 1.2 million lives, with an additional 300,000 deaths from other violent incidents, such as the Mexican drug war. Alarmingly, 2022 witnessed the highest death toll from violent conflict since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.

Revisiting the 2014 Claims

Here’s how our predictions held up over the decade:

• Conflict Deaths: While deaths were low in the early 2010s, the past three years have seen a sharp rise, driven by major wars like those in Ukraine and Tigray.
• Wars Between Nations: The claim that interstate wars were nearly extinct no longer holds. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a stark example of a major power pursuing territorial conquest.
• Democracies and War: The absence of wars between democracies remains true, highlighting the stabilizing role of democratic governance.
• Fixed Borders: Most borders remain intact, but disputes in regions like Asia (e.g., India-China) and South America (e.g., Venezuela-Guyana) are heating up.
• Civil Wars and Diplomacy: Fewer civil wars now end through diplomacy, with many resulting in stalemates or outright victories.
• Legacy of Colonialism: Conflicts continue to disproportionately affect regions with colonial or Soviet histories, underscoring unresolved issues from the 20th century.

The Road Ahead: A Multipolar World

The post-Cold War “rules-based world order” is under strain as global power dynamics shift. China has emerged as a superpower, rivaling the U.S. in economic and military might. Russia’s actions have challenged long-standing taboos against conquest, while Europe begins rearming in response to rising tensions.

These developments signal a transition to a multipolar world, with new alliances and spheres of influence forming. This shift raises the stakes for future conflicts and their potential global impact.

A Crossroads for Humanity

Despite recent setbacks, humanity remains in a historically peaceful era compared to the horrors of the 20th century. The next decade will determine whether the uptick in violence is an anomaly or the start of a troubling new trend. Let’s hope for a future where peace prevails.